Analytics
Yes is at 2.3%, down 7.2 points from 9.5% when the market opened on 30 Oct 2026.
Across the 7 daily closes on record from 30 Oct 2026 to 5 Nov 2026, the highest close was 14% on 3 Nov 2026 and the lowest 2.3% on 5 Nov 2026. Its largest one-day move was 9 points up, to 14% on 3 Nov 2026.
November 2–November 8 ranks third of the 10 outcomes in “When will Gemini Carbon be released?”. November 9–November 15 leads at 80.5%; November 16–November 22 is at 11.3%.
$399.88 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $20.97K since listing. The order book holds $9.72K, with a 2.2% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 436 trades, $1.02K bought Yes and $6.94K bought No.
The largest Yes position is balthazar with 2.3K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 4.1K. Ten wallets hold 90.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 9 Nov 2026, 4 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Nov 5, 11:13 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 30 Oct 2026 – 5 Nov 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Oct 2026 | 9.5% |
| 5 Nov 2026 | 2.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 4.09K |
| balthazar | Yes | 2.25K |
| Martinus- | Yes | 1.84K |
On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed "Carbon," separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10). This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which "Carbon", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google. A qualifying model must be a Google AI model named "Carbon" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed "Carbon", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
| lissartter |
| No |
| 668.24 |
| EdgePunting | No | 409.99 |
| borntoolate.eth | Yes | 312 |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yes | 300 |
| haouibao | Yes | 175 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 136.6 |
| Flamboyant-Warming | Yes | 130 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/when-will-gemini-carbon-be-released-20261027
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