Analytics
Yes is at 14.5%, down 43 points from 58% when the market opened on 13 Nov 2025.
Across the 331 daily closes on record from 13 Nov 2025 to 5 Nov 2026 (27 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 84.5% on 20 Jan 2026 and the lowest 9% on 14 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 17%; a month before, 34.5%. Its largest one-day move was 47 points up, to 84.5% on 20 Jan 2026.
$10.34 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $97.88K since listing. The order book holds $5.22K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $3.01K bought Yes and $9.65K bought No; the largest was a $1.84K sell of No at 83.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Brovadana with 1.6K shares; the largest No position is Sylvester.the.Cat with 2.5K. Ten wallets hold 55.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 57 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Nov 5, 11:13 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 331 points, 13 Nov 2025 – 5 Nov 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Nov 2025 | 58.0% |
| 5 Nov 2026 | 14.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Sylvester.the.Cat | No | 2.5K |
| Reckless-Estrogen-Competence | No | 2.11K |
| Brovadana | Yes | 1.61K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly announces and launches a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "consumer hardware product" is defined as a physical device intended for direct use by individual consumers, rather than enterprise or developer tools. The product must be newly introduced and not a rebrand, update, or iteration of any previously released device. Examples that would qualify include an AI-powered wearable, smart home assistant, or augmented reality device. Developer tools, AI chips, or servers marketed exclusively for enterprise use would not qualify. The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-openai-launch-a-consumer-hardware-product-by
| CarVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | Yes | 1K |
| erlichbachmn | Yes | 901.54 |
| burge146 | Yes | 851.92 |
| nonkenny90 | No | 766 |
| MrMelonHead | No | 594.7 |
| Flaky-Ring | No | 588.24 |
| tradetosurvive1 | Yes | 575.65 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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