Analytics
Yes is at 4.3%, about where the market opened on 5 Nov 2026.
Across the 2 daily closes on record from 5 Nov 2026 to 5 Nov 2026, the price held at 4.3%.
claude-opus-5.5-high ranks fourth of the 4 outcomes in “Best AI model on November 16?”. gemini-4-carbon-high leads at 77.5%; Other is at 16%.
$35.33 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $284.91 since listing. The order book holds $618.01, with a 7.3% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 109 shares; the largest No position is NoTeacher with 74.
Trading closes on 17 Nov 2026, 12 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Nov 5, 11:13 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 5 Nov 2026 – 5 Nov 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Nov 2026 | 4.3% |
| 5 Nov 2026 | 4.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 108.79 |
| NoTeacher | No | 73.77 |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 50 |
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “gemini-4-argon-high” would be ranked ahead of “gemini-4-carbon-high”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/best-ai-model-on-november-16
| Shy-Note |
| Yes |
| 40.59 |
| parameter1 | No | 35.33 |
| WarriorH | Yes | 25 |
| davhcc | No | 21.76 |
| SmartBoyBilly | No | 20.02 |
| Swift Meteor 30F2 | Yes | 15 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 5 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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