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| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | Yes | 269.08 | $0.172 | $220.64 | +$174.23 |
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This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,000?No | buy | 16.67 | $0.600 | $10 | 1h ago |
 |
| No |
| 190.31 |
| $0.736 |
| $181.75 |
| +$41.75 |
| Will any AI model reach 1550 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | No | 180.09 | $0.833 | $176.76 | +$26.76 |
 Will the next Claude Opus model be released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 157.8 | $0.785 | $154.56 | +$30.62 |
 Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1520? | No | 156.03 | $0.929 | $147.06 | +$2.06 |
| Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | No | 149.66 | $0.902 | $145.84 | +$10.84 |
 Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | No | 154.85 | $0.904 | $141.68 | +$1.68 |
 Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? | No | 170.9 | $0.697 | $140.99 | +$21.79 |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510? | No | 145.26 | $0.901 | $130 | -$0.82 |
 Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | No | 109.89 | $0.910 | $103.85 | +$3.85 |
 Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495? | Yes | 120.83 | $0.559 | $95.46 | +$27.96 |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31? | No | 95.24 | $0.840 | $90.95 | +$10.95 |
 Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | No | 99.99 | $0.850 | $89.49 | +$4.5 |
| Will OpenAI's Astra model debut as #1? (Text Arena) | No | 102.48 | $0.868 | $89.06 | +$0.15 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 134.78 | $0.690 | $85.59 | -$7.41 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? | Yes | 121.89 | $0.733 | $85.2 | -$4.17 |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31? | No | 100.51 | $0.696 | $80.86 | +$10.86 |
 Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 125.42 | $0.638 | $77.13 | -$2.87 |
 GTA 6 launch postponed again? | No | 75.48 | $0.795 | $70.58 | +$10.57 |
 Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 71.91 | $0.907 | $64.36 | -$0.84 |
| Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 65.45 | $0.917 | $62.17 | +$2.17 |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31? | No | 100 | $0.730 | $60.5 | -$12.5 |
 Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | No | 84.94 | $0.870 | $60.18 | -$13.72 |
 Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | No | 69.06 | $0.724 | $59.67 | +$9.67 |
 Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? | No | 62.74 | $0.590 | $59.29 | +$22.29 |
| buy |
| 17.08 |
| $0.878 |
| $15 |
| 1h ago |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 13.89 | $0.720 | $10 | 1h ago |
 Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?No | buy | 71.43 | $0.420 | $30 | 1h ago |
 Will Ipswich Town be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?Yes | buy | 38.46 | $0.520 | $20 | 10h ago |
 US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?Yes | buy | 25 | $0.200 | $5 | 10h ago |
| Will the next Claude Haiku model be released by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 15.87 | $0.630 | $10 | 18h ago |
 Meta's Watermelon released by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 10.53 | $0.950 | $10 | 22h ago |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 7.58 | $0.660 | $5 | 22h ago |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1515 by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 65 | $0.670 | $43.55 | 22h ago |
 Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?Yes | buy | 37.22 | $0.806 | $30 | 1d ago |
 Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?Yes | buy | 16.48 | $0.910 | $15 | 1d ago |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 34.48 | $0.870 | $30 | 1d ago |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?No | buy | 13.51 | $0.370 | $5 | 1d ago |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 23.08 | $0.650 | $15 | 1d ago |
 Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?No | sell | 207.91 | $0.740 | $153.85 | 2d ago |
 Will "Turning Point: Generation 9/11" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?No | buy | 3.75 | $0.534 | $2 | 2d ago |
| Will "Turning Point: Generation 9/11" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?Yes | sell | 30.48 | $0.310 | $9.45 | 2d ago |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 4.17 | $0.480 | $2 | 2d ago |
| Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 65.93 | $0.910 | $60 | 2d ago |
| Will "Turning Point: Generation 9/11" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?Yes | buy | 30.49 | $0.328 | $10 | 2d ago |
| Will "Turning Point: Generation 9/11" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?No | sell | 20 | $0.915 | $18.3 | 2d ago |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 61.73 | $0.810 | $50 | 3d ago |
 Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-06?No | buy | 2.27 | $0.440 | $1 | 3d ago |
| Will "The Secret Woman" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?Yes | sell | 32.95 | $0.993 | $32.72 | 3d ago |
| Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 8.57 | $0.700 | $6 | 3d ago |
| Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 65.45 | $0.917 | $60 | 3d ago |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.700 | $7 | 3d ago |
 Will "Beauty in Black: Season 3" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?Yes | buy | 42.74 | $0.936 | $40 | 3d ago |
| Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-06?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.500 | $5 | 3d ago |
| Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?No | buy | 8.45 | $0.710 | $6 | 3d ago |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes | buy | 44.78 | $0.670 | $30 | 3d ago |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 134.78 | $0.690 | $93 | 3d ago |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 24.51 | $0.816 | $20 | 3d ago |
 Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes | buy | 32.61 | $0.460 | $15 | 3d ago |
| Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 34.48 | $0.870 | $30 | 3d ago |
 Will "Primetime" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Yes | buy | 6.06 | $0.330 | $2 | 3d ago |
| Will "Primetime" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Yes | buy | 5.43 | $0.920 | $5 | 3d ago |
 Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes | buy | 75 | $0.200 | $15 | 3d ago |
| Will "Beauty in Black: Season 3" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?Yes | buy | 10.87 | $0.920 | $10 | 3d ago |
| Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 43.96 | $0.910 | $40 | 4d ago |
 Will Drake release a new album by December 31?Yes | buy | 10.87 | $0.460 | $5 | 4d ago |
| Will the next Claude Haiku model be released by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 39.22 | $0.510 | $20 | 4d ago |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes | buy | 80.65 | $0.620 | $50 | 4d ago |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?No | buy | 25.97 | $0.770 | $20 | 5d ago |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 7, 2026?No | buy | 19.61 | $0.510 | $10 | 5d ago |
| Will "The Secret Woman" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?Yes | buy | 22.95 | $0.871 | $20 | 5d ago |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?No | buy | 40.54 | $0.740 | $30 | 5d ago |
| Will OpenAI's Astra model debut as #1? (Text Arena)No | sell | 40 | $0.820 | $32.8 | 6d ago |
| Will OpenAI's Astra model debut as #1? (Text Arena)No | sell | 30 | $0.830 | $24.9 | 6d ago |