Analytics
Yes is at 5%, down 23 points from 27.5% when the market opened on 30 Sep 2026.
Across the 20 daily closes on record from 30 Sep 2026 to 25 Oct 2026 (7 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 40% on 10 Oct 2026 and the lowest 5% on 25 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 14.5%. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 6% on 14 Oct 2026.
It is one of 3 markets under “Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by...?”.
$20.83 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $2.34K since listing. The order book holds $235.13, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 73 trades, $210.97 bought Yes and $708.24 bought No.
The largest Yes position is AJSV with 330 shares; the largest No position is Contentious-Dinnerdate with 466. Ten wallets hold 85.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 7 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 25, 1:40 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 20 points, 30 Sep 2026 – 25 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Sep 2026 | 27.5% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | 5.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Contentious-Dinnerdate | No | 466 |
| AJSV | Yes | 329.63 |
| Absolute-Satisfaction | Yes | 140.64 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Opus" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Opus 5 or Claude Opus 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Opus 6, while models whose name does not include "Opus" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Opus 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-released-byptptpt-20260923144500000
| Blurry-Ball | No | 118 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 101.77 |
| ALKNEEEERRX | Yes | 100 |
| Olcan | No | 92.09 |
| parameter1 | No | 61.86 |
| Ressuersi | Yes | 30.9 |
| youtube-trader | Yes | 27.9 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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