Analytics
Yes is at 12%, down 32 points from 43.5% when the market opened on 14 Feb 2026.
Across the 244 daily closes on record from 14 Feb 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (15 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 45% on 11 Apr 2026 and the lowest 7% on 26 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 17%; a month before, 13%. Its largest one-day move was 21 points down, to 23% on 15 Feb 2026.
Anthropic ranks third of the 9 outcomes in “Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?”. None in 2026 leads at 46%; Google is at 30.3%.
$128.13 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $21K since listing. The order book holds $721.89, with a 10.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $1.4K bought Yes and $5.6K bought No; the largest was a $1.3K buy of No at 86.0¢.
The largest Yes position is 0x84828283773829 with 5.7K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 6.9K. Ten wallets hold 87.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:41 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 244 points, 14 Feb 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Feb 2026 | 43.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 12.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 6.91K |
| 0x84828283773829 | Yes | 5.68K |
| libratus1 | No | 3.36K |
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026". If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-companys-ai-will-first-hit-1550-on-chatbot-arena-in-2026
| elviktor |
| Yes |
| 688 |
| thursdays | Yes | 448.27 |
| Spectrum | Yes | 388.29 |
| gummy-usb | Yes | 315.2 |
| Cheerful-Nucleotidase | Yes | 294.12 |
| peepeepooppoop | Yes | 232.2 |
| Blurry-Ball | Yes | 221.61 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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