Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?

techResolved

Yes, settled Oct 26, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$13.6K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Oct 26, 2026 UTC

Topic roomBest AI Model

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 26 Oct 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 97.7%. Yes opened at 78.5% on 14 Oct 2026. Before it settled, across the 10 daily closes on record from 14 Oct 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 97.7% on 24 Oct 2026 and the lowest 67.5% on 17 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 14 points up, to 87.5% on 20 Oct 2026. $13.59K traded over the market's life.

28 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 27, 4:38 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 10 points, 14 Oct 2026 – 24 Oct 2026

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	1.71K
Soulful-Remains-Chorus	No	148.84
ViscaElBarca	No	100

10 of 28 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5.5-high” would be ranked ahead of “gemini-4-argon-high”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".