Analytics
Yes is at 3.5%, down 47 points from 50.5% when the market opened on 13 Feb 2026.
Across the 232 daily closes on record from 13 Feb 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (29 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50.5% on 13 Feb 2026 and the lowest 2.9% on 7 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4.2%; a month before, 3.5%. Its largest one-day move was 23 points down, to 27.5% on 14 Feb 2026.
It is one of 4 markets under “Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?”.
$9.64K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $2.81K, with a 2.9% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 191 trades, $324.94 bought Yes and $1.85K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Bsau4 with 189 shares; the largest No position is big-short with 617. Ten wallets hold 82.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 12:57 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 232 points, 13 Feb 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Feb 2026 | 50.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 3.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| big-short | No | 616.92 |
| Bsau4 | Yes | 189.13 |
| thecaricature | Yes | 186.54 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31
| a5a5d |
| Yes |
| 140 |
| BabyIBeenWatchingYou | No | 132.95 |
| Oklmntrader | Yes | 118.92 |
| thursdays | No | 111.6 |
| 0xFBI | Yes | 100 |
| parameter1 | No | 95.24 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 49.99 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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