Analytics
Yes is at 46.5%, down 20 points from 66% when the market opened on 3 Jan 2026.
Across the 264 daily closes on record from 3 Jan 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (38 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 84% on 13 Feb 2026 and the lowest 8.5% on 29 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 31.5%; a month before, 14%. Its largest one-day move was 26 points down, to 40.5% on 4 Jan 2026.
It is one of 4 markets under “Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?”.
$155 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $56.01K since listing. The order book holds $373.32, with a 23.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $2.42K bought Yes and $4.24K bought No.
The largest Yes position is KimJonEn with 1.3K shares; the largest No position is big-short with 2.9K. Ten wallets hold 69.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 2:27 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 264 points, 3 Jan 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Jan 2026 | 66.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 47.5% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31
| Hakei. |
| Yes |
| 1.31K |
| thursdays | Yes | 1.13K |
| dudukos | No | 952.04 |
| ikengard | Yes | 889.12 |
| hunggin | No | 887.94 |
| Flamboyant-Warming | Yes | 811.61 |
| knowerofmarkets | Yes | 800 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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