Analytics
Yes is at 7.1%, down 11 points from 18% when the market opened on 3 Jan 2026.
Across the 267 daily closes on record from 3 Jan 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (35 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 59.5% on 13 Feb 2026 and the lowest 3.4% on 13 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 12.8%; a month before, 4%. Its largest one-day move was 37 points up, to 59.5% on 13 Feb 2026.
It is one of 4 markets under “Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?”.
$27.1K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $1.88K, with a 3.6% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 319 trades, $1.71K bought Yes and $4.47K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Perypery with 447 shares; the largest No position is libratus1 with 501. Ten wallets hold 60.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 12:57 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 267 points, 3 Jan 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Jan 2026 | 18.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 7.1% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| libratus1 | No | 500.55 |
| Perypery | Yes | 446.62 |
| BabyIBeenWatchingYou | No | 398.89 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31
| Redgoldsnapper |
| Yes |
| 350.21 |
| thecaricature | Yes | 300 |
| luish | No | 290 |
| tj9 | Yes | 262.92 |
| Silver Scout FFA3 | No | 230.08 |
| 0x652bFf901f401Fdhsk342kdjfnfk029abks13 | Yes | 200 |
| SuperTests | Yes | 197 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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