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| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | Yes | 478.91 | $0.727 | $390.31 | +$42.38 |
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This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?No | buy | 362.84 | $0.490 | $177.67 | 22d ago |
|
| No |
| 290 |
| $0.750 |
| $276.95 |
| +$59.45 |
| SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? | No | 362.84 | $0.490 | $230.4 | +$52.73 |
| Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | No | 188 | $0.920 | $180.76 | +$7.8 |
 Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | No | 215.57 | $0.554 | $165.99 | +$46.46 |
 EU debt downgrade before 2027? | No | 165.95 | $0.686 | $114.51 | +$0.65 |
 Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026? | Yes | 328.49 | $0.393 | $68.98 | -$60.15 |
 Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch? | No | 29.9 | $0.760 | $27.66 | +$4.93 |
 Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510? | No | 1.53 | $0.840 | $1.08 | -$0.21 |
| Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | No | 5 | $0.680 | $0.05 | -$3.35 |
| buy |
| 188 |
| $0.920 |
| $172.96 |
| 26d ago |
 IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?Yes | sell | 63 | $0.240 | $15.12 | 26d ago |
 Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?No | buy | 42.01 | $0.690 | $28.99 | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 521.09 | $0.307 | $159.8 | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 49.14 | $0.450 | $22.11 | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 1.39K | $0.606 | $844.66 | Jul 31, 2026 |
 Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?No | buy | 200 | $0.810 | $162 | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 850.44 | $0.523 | $445.04 | Jul 27, 2026 |
 Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 373.99 | $0.925 | $345.94 | Jul 26, 2026 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 27, 2026?Yes | buy | 21.46 | $0.933 | $20.03 | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 49.48 | $0.966 | $47.78 | Jul 23, 2026 |
 Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 210 | $0.120 | $25.2 | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 650 | $0.943 | $612.95 | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 49.8 | $0.928 | $46.19 | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 173.05 | $0.908 | $157.16 | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 245.71 | $0.958 | $235.36 | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Will England vs. Argentina end in a draw? AND Will France win on 2026-07-14? | buy | 69.42 | $0.138 | $9.58 | Jul 13, 2026 |
 Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?Yes | buy | 5.99 | $0.821 | $4.92 | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?Yes | buy | 64.2 | $0.890 | $57.11 | Jul 13, 2026 |
 Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.628 | $62.8 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes | buy | 94.25 | $0.610 | $57.49 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes | buy | 115.38 | $0.600 | $69.23 | Jul 10, 2026 |
 Another World Cup card reversed?No | buy | 45.1 | $0.960 | $43.31 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 176 | $0.460 | $80.96 | Jul 10, 2026 |
 Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 155.88 | $0.680 | $106 | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes | sell | 100 | $0.290 | $29 | Jul 9, 2026 |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31?No | buy | 5 | $0.600 | $3 | Jul 9, 2026 |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31?No | buy | 10 | $0.600 | $6 | Jul 9, 2026 |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?Yes | buy | 63 | $0.430 | $27.09 | Jul 9, 2026 |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31?No | buy | 20 | $0.600 | $12 | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 205 | $0.540 | $110.7 | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 151 | $0.530 | $80.03 | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 214 | $0.505 | $108.04 | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes | sell | 100 | $0.290 | $29 | Jul 8, 2026 |
 Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?No | buy | 140.81 | $0.929 | $130.77 | Jul 8, 2026 |
 Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?No | buy | 32.72 | $0.780 | $25.52 | Jul 8, 2026 |
 Grok 4.4 released by July 8?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.998 | $9.98 | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Grok 4.4 released by July 8?Yes | buy | 59.99 | $0.992 | $59.51 | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Grok 4.4 released by July 8?Yes | buy | 168 | $0.980 | $164.64 | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Grok 4.4 released by July 8?Yes | buy | 13 | $0.990 | $12.87 | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Grok 4.4 released by July 8?Yes | buy | 13 | $0.990 | $12.87 | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 234.59 | $0.830 | $194.71 | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 144.23 | $0.820 | $118.27 | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.650 | $65 | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 140 | $0.640 | $89.6 | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 143.65 | $0.809 | $116.27 | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Will GPT-Bidi-1 be released by July 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 228.14 | $0.789 | $180.01 | Jul 8, 2026 |
 Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?No | buy | 200 | $0.630 | $126 | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Yes | buy | 12.92 | $0.140 | $1.81 | Jul 6, 2026 |