Analytics
Yes is at 7%, down 32 points from 39% when the market opened on 30 Jan 2026.
Across the 244 daily closes on record from 30 Jan 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (28 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 63.5% on 13 May 2026 and the lowest 5.5% on 5 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 9.5%; a month before, 16%. Its largest one-day move was 28 points up, to 60% on 6 May 2026.
$16.7 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $84.51K since listing. The order book holds $767.46, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $626.85 bought Yes and $5.7K bought No; the largest was a $1.27K buy of No at 91.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Turbulent-Decline-Router with 1K shares; the largest No position is iHaveBeenPwned with 1.4K. Ten wallets hold 63.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 7:22 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 244 points, 30 Jan 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Jan 2026 | 39.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 7.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| iHaveBeenPwned | No | 1.39K |
| Turbulent-Decline-Router | Yes | 1.05K |
| aviato | No | 999.99 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format. Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar. A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar. Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-openai-release-a-social-network-in-2026
| tigertest1 | Yes | 958.55 |
| BikesAreTheBikes | Yes | 619.51 |
| Waterlogged-Cork | No | 543.77 |
| warptrading | Yes | 517.24 |
| generalVR | No | 499.99 |
| HerrieDavis | Yes | 428.4 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 399.98 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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