Analytics
Yes is at 0.4%, down 11 points from 11.5% when the market opened on 23 Oct 2026.
Across the 5 daily closes on record from 23 Oct 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 11.5% on 23 Oct 2026 and the lowest 0.4% on 29 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 9.8 points down, to 1.7% on 24 Oct 2026.
claude-opus-5.5-high ranks third of the 4 outcomes in “Best AI model on November 2?”. Other leads at 91.5%; gemini-4-argon-high is at 7.5%.
$182.9 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $1.8K since listing. The order book holds $1.67K, with a 0.6% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 83 trades, $27.1 bought Yes and $1.2K bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 522 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1.5K. Ten wallets hold 86.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 3 Nov 2026, 6 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 2:38 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 23 Oct 2026 – 29 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Oct 2026 | 11.5% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 0.4% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.52K |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 521.91 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 258.05 |
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5.5-high” would be ranked ahead of “gemini-4-argon-high”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/best-ai-model-on-november-2
| X10X10 | Yes | 114.66 |
| parameter1 | No | 103.08 |
| Modern-Wolf | Yes | 95.82 |
| blastimas | Yes | 73.75 |
| balthazar | Yes | 65.15 |
| .Menthe | Yes | 50 |
| richyee | Yes | 50 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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