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“Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?” is a tech prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
Trading is open until Jan 1, 2027 UTC. As of Sep 27, 6:52 PM UTC, Yes trades at 3.5¢, a 3.5% implied chance, $13.98K traded in the last 24 hours, $3.76K resting in the order book, a 0.9% bid-ask spread.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 150 daily price points from May 1, 2026 UTC to Sep 27, 2026 UTC (Yes between 3.3% and 26.0%); 55 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 81.6% of the loaded shares; 193 recent public fills from 87 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 150 points · 1 May 2026 – 27 Sep 2026 · axis zoomed to 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 May 2026 | 26.0% |
| 27 Sep 2026 | 3.5% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-december-31
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 973.63 |
| thursdays | Yes | 883.49 |
| Oklmntrader | Yes | 795.52 |
| onthewave | No | 278.5 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 276.4 |
| Jade Beacon E3EA | Yes | 267.78 |
| Wojtek | Yes | 242.36 |
| Midas14 | No | 200 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard