Analytics
Yes is at 4.2%, down 22 points from 26.5% when the market opened on 1 May 2026.
Across the 175 daily closes on record from 1 May 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 26.5% on 1 May 2026 and the lowest 1.8% on 15 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4.1%; a month before, 10.5%. Its largest one-day move was 18 points down, to 8.5% on 2 May 2026.
It is one of 14 markets under “Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?”.
$78.13 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $8.12K since listing. The order book holds $1.8K, with a 0.4% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 136 trades, $109.08 bought Yes and $2.7K bought No.
The largest Yes position is planktonXD with 287 shares; the largest No position is macrosteaks with 439. Ten wallets hold 81.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 69 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 5:36 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 175 points, 1 May 2026 – 24 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 May 2026 | 26.5% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 4.2% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| macrosteaks | No | 439 |
| Xeny | No | 423.31 |
| planktonXD | Yes | 287 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-december-31
2 more markets, none above 2.5%.
| mrmuller |
| Yes |
| 150.55 |
| AJSV | Yes | 132.56 |
| protonboy | Yes | 116.28 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 100 |
| Slow-Exhibit | No | 100 |
| il1 | No | 99.99 |
| thecaricature | Yes | 80 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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