Analytics
Yes is at 5%, down 20 points from 25% when the market opened on 1 May 2026.
The high was 25% on 1 May 2026 and the low 5% on 13 Oct 2026. A week ago Yes was at 5.5%; a month ago, 6.5%. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 8.5% on 2 May 2026.
It is one of 14 markets under “Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?”.
$3.55K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $9.15K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 60 trades, $25.88 bought Yes and $1.5K bought No.
The largest Yes position is DooBieZ with 309 shares; the largest No position is Xeny with 678. Ten wallets hold 86.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 75 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 18, 7:55 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 169 points, 1 May 2026 – 18 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 May 2026 | 25.0% |
| 18 Oct 2026 | 5.0% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-december-31
2 more markets, none above 2.5%.
| Slow-Exhibit |
| No |
| 150 |
| mrmuller | Yes | 127.14 |
| thecaricature | Yes | 110 |
| 1BTCis1BTC | Yes | 100.27 |
| protonboy | Yes | 100.01 |
| Oklmntrader | Yes | 92.44 |
| AJSV | Yes | 87.14 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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