Analytics
Yes is at 2.5%, down 23 points from 25.5% when the market opened on 1 May 2026.
Across the 176 daily closes on record from 1 May 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 25.5% on 1 May 2026 and the lowest 2.5% on 11 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 2.5%; a month before, 3.1%. Its largest one-day move was 18 points down, to 8% on 2 May 2026.
It is one of 14 markets under “Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?”.
$6.16K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $2.56K, with a 1.5% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 151 trades, $50.1 bought Yes and $1.59K bought No.
The largest Yes position is thecaricature with 1.2K shares; the largest No position is tja with 743. Ten wallets hold 96.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 2:10 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 176 points, 1 May 2026 – 29 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 May 2026 | 25.5% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 2.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| thecaricature | Yes | 1.22K |
| tja | No | 743.01 |
| DeLeeuw | No | 282.29 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-december-31
1 more market, none above 0.7%.
| 0x7a28z1 |
| No |
| 200 |
| SmartBoyBilly | No | 72.58 |
| Elias.Thornwell | No | 41.01 |
| 53asdad | Yes | 29.09 |
| perepuk | Yes | 24.1 |
| 247525 | Yes | 22 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 20.79 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
