Analytics
Resolved Yes on 1 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 100%. Yes opened at 27.5% on 1 May 2026. Before it settled, the high was 100% on 1 Oct 2026 and the low 16.5% on 23 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 74 points up, to 100% on 1 Oct 2026. $46.32K traded over the market's life.
55 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:03 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 152 points · 1 May 2026 – 1 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 May 2026 | 27.5% |
| 1 Oct 2026 | 100.0% |
3 more markets, none above 2.5%.
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| tlktlk | No | 6.21K |
| ACara | No | 1.15K |
| Darkpsico- | No | 840.31 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-december-31
| Unlined-Upgrade | No | 346.53 |
| xcaiox | No | 316.19 |
| libratus1 | No | 248.17 |
| rocky42013 | No | 221.78 |
| jackli003 | No | 200 |
| 127.0.0.1 | No | 145.49 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | No | 120 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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