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| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 41.02K | $0.792 | $22.29K | -$10.21K |
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This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes | buy | 19.05 | $0.630 | $12 | 18d ago |
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| No |
| 2.79K |
| $0.796 |
| $2.66K |
| +$436.28 |
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? | No | 1.8K | $0.889 | $1.65K | +$46.81 |
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | Yes | 1.38K | $0.788 | $1.34K | +$252.07 |
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 1.26K | $0.916 | $1.24K | +$91.15 |
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? | No | 701.65 | $0.898 | $647.63 | +$17.52 |
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? | No | 713.17 | $0.816 | $517.05 | -$65.22 |
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 796.35 | $0.499 | $418.08 | +$20.58 |
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | No | 439.7 | $0.862 | $393.53 | +$14.41 |
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 371.25 | $0.801 | $358.82 | +$61.32 |
Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | No | 300.16 | $0.749 | $296.41 | +$71.61 |
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | No | 316.19 | $0.664 | $245.05 | +$35.05 |
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | No | 230.65 | $0.910 | $217.96 | +$7.96 |
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 228.67 | $0.600 | $209.23 | +$72.03 |
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31? | No | 273.97 | $0.730 | $204.11 | +$4.11 |
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | No | 200 | $0.660 | $185 | +$53 |
US strike on Mexico by December 31? | No | 151.9 | $0.658 | $137.47 | +$37.47 |
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | Yes | 129.64 | $0.848 | $127.05 | +$17.05 |
Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by September 30? | No | 133.98 | $0.746 | $123.93 | +$23.93 |
Will Marcelo Aro win the most votes in the 2026 Minas Gerais Senate election? | No | 114.64 | $0.872 | $113.9 | +$13.9 |
Will Mateus Simões win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | No | 105.58 | $0.947 | $105.1 | +$5.1 |
SSI announces it has achieved SSI by December 31? | No | 108.98 | $0.918 | $93.17 | -$6.83 |
Will the next Claude Haiku model be released by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 121.5 | $0.658 | $63.18 | -$16.82 |
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by September 30? | No | 50 | $0.800 | $41 | +$1 |
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | Yes | 41.54 | $0.722 | $37.2 | +$7.2 |
| buy |
| 322.92 |
| $0.960 |
| $310 |
| 18d ago |
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No | buy | 125 | $0.960 | $120 | 18d ago |
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No | buy | 104.17 | $0.960 | $100 | 18d ago |
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No | buy | 104.17 | $0.960 | $100 | 18d ago |
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No | buy | 104.21 | $0.960 | $100 | 18d ago |
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?Yes | buy | 11.49 | $0.870 | $10 | 18d ago |
Apple Vision Pro 2 released before 2027?No | buy | 10.53 | $0.950 | $10 | 18d ago |
Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by August 31, 2026?No | buy | 10.15 | $0.985 | $10 | 18d ago |
Will Marcelo Aro win the most votes in the 2026 Minas Gerais Senate election?No | buy | 114.64 | $0.872 | $100 | 18d ago |
Will Gabriel Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?No | buy | 21.07 | $0.949 | $20 | 18d ago |
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?Yes | buy | 27.21 | $0.735 | $20 | 18d ago |
US expels a Brazilian diplomat by September 30?No | buy | 10.42 | $0.960 | $10 | 18d ago |
SSI announces it has achieved SSI by December 31?No | buy | 108.98 | $0.918 | $100 | 18d ago |
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?Yes | buy | 22.05 | $0.907 | $20 | 18d ago |
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by October 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 109.52 | $0.913 | $100 | 18d ago |
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?Yes | buy | 14.33 | $0.698 | $10 | Aug 8, 2026 |
Will Mateus Simões win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?No | buy | 105.58 | $0.947 | $100 | Aug 8, 2026 |
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 115.4 | $0.867 | $100 | Aug 8, 2026 |
Gemini 4.0 released by August 31, 2026?No | buy | 1.13K | $0.883 | $1K | Aug 8, 2026 |
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by September 30?No | buy | 50 | $0.800 | $40 | Jul 21, 2026 |
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes | buy | 26.13 | $0.380 | $9.93 | Jul 19, 2026 |
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 34.75 | $0.920 | $31.97 | Jul 12, 2026 |
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by October 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 217.66 | $0.919 | $200 | Jul 12, 2026 |
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on July 18, 2026?Yes | buy | 10.27 | $0.974 | $10 | Jul 12, 2026 |
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes | buy | 30.3 | $0.660 | $20 | Jul 12, 2026 |
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 10.87 | $0.920 | $10 | Jul 12, 2026 |
Will Grok 5 be released by August 15, 2026?No | buy | 10.87 | $0.920 | $10 | Jul 12, 2026 |
Will Grok 5 be released by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 12.66 | $0.790 | $10 | Jul 12, 2026 |
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 30, 2026?No | buy | 22.99 | $0.435 | $10 | Jul 12, 2026 |
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes | buy | 25.71 | $0.389 | $10 | Jul 12, 2026 |
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No | sell | 12.97 | $0.611 | $7.92 | Jul 12, 2026 |
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Yes | buy | 16.84 | $0.594 | $10 | Jul 12, 2026 |
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No | buy | 517.85 | $0.772 | $400 | Jul 11, 2026 |
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?No | buy | 214.69 | $0.932 | $200 | Jul 11, 2026 |
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?Yes | buy | 102.8 | $0.973 | $100 | Jul 11, 2026 |
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?Yes | buy | 102.94 | $0.971 | $100 | Jul 11, 2026 |
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?No | buy | 107.53 | $0.930 | $100 | Jul 11, 2026 |
Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?No | buy | 113.64 | $0.880 | $100 | Jul 11, 2026 |
Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?No | buy | 113.64 | $0.880 | $100 | Jul 11, 2026 |
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 12?Yes | buy | 33.5 | $0.299 | $10 | Jul 11, 2026 |
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes | buy | 312.57 | $0.960 | $300 | Jul 11, 2026 |
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to AdvanceArgentina | buy | 13.29 | $0.752 | $10 | Jul 11, 2026 |
France vs. Spain: Team to AdvanceFrance | buy | 16.67 | $0.600 | $10 | Jul 11, 2026 |
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 11.24 | $0.890 | $10 | Jul 11, 2026 |
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 10.87 | $0.920 | $10 | Jul 11, 2026 |
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 13.16 | $0.760 | $10 | Jul 11, 2026 |
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 11.36 | $0.880 | $10 | Jul 11, 2026 |
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?Yes | buy | 10.99 | $0.910 | $10 | Jul 11, 2026 |
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes | buy | 10.7 | $0.934 | $10 | Jul 11, 2026 |