Analytics
Resolved No on 5 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 20.5% on 19 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 359 daily closes on record from 19 Sep 2025 to 5 Oct 2026 (23 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 28% on 12 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 5 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 14 points down, to 6.5% on 20 Sep 2025. $1.45M traded over the market's life.
426 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:03 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 359 points, 19 Sep 2025 – 5 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2025 | 20.5% |
| 5 Oct 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Miniature-Review | Yes | 99.52K |
| unknwnfnd | Yes | 57.54K |
| Greedy-Screw | Yes | 32.15K |
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-any-presidential-candidate-win-outright-in-the-first-round-of-the-brazil-election
Start here: the 25 October runoff, the polls, the Polymarket odds and the results, in one guide.
Why a candidate's poll share and market price measure different things, and how to read them side by side.
When the count begins on 25 October, and where the electoral court publishes the official results.
| Ivory Vector 0DDF | Yes | 31.61K |
| Melody626 | Yes | 28.24K |
| jason83 | Yes | 27.62K |
| Asfalto | Yes | 19.66K |
| Glass-Voyage | Yes | 10.16K |
| Johnsansculotte | Yes | 8.33K |
| diadjaid | Yes | 8K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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