Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99%. Yes opened at 6.5% on 12 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 51 daily closes on record from 12 Aug 2026 to 1 Oct 2026, the highest close was 7.5% on 13 Aug 2026 and the lowest 1% on 30 Sep 2026. $3.69K traded over the market's life.
9 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 2, 6:03 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 51 points, 12 Aug 2026 – 1 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Aug 2026 | 6.5% |
| 1 Oct 2026 | 1.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Attached-Prairie | Yes | 325 |
| Petty-Stacking | Yes | 120 |
| 613b668ef24D3A37417cb5756c5943cae761DA44. | Yes | 88.75 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States expels a Brazilian diplomat stationed in the United States between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-expels-a-brazilian-diplomat-by-september-30
| 72 |
| PPMT | Yes | 41.6 |
| Wordy-Doctrine | Yes | 5 |
| Rapid Quasar 51BA | Yes | 4.54 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 0.88 |
| Geromi | No | 0.53 |
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