Analytics
Resolved Yes on 26 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 16.5%. Yes opened at 59% on 19 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 375 daily closes on record from 19 Sep 2025 to 25 Oct 2026 (27 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 66.5% on 2 Aug 2026 and the lowest 11.5% on 10 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 20 points down, to 15.5% on 5 Oct 2026. $48.51M traded over the market's life.
1,000 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 27, 3:10 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 375 points, 19 Sep 2025 – 25 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2025 | 59.0% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | 16.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 10.82M |
| trendsettter | No | 250K |
| StudentMoney | No | 106.04K |
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election
Start here: the 25 October runoff, the polls, the Polymarket odds and the results, in one guide.
Why a candidate's poll share and market price measure different things, and how to read them side by side.
When the count begins on 25 October, and where the electoral court publishes the official results.
| pirulirubeibe | No | 100K |
| ivantoney | No | 99.56K |
| medico.libertario | No | 76.91K |
| balthazar | No | 67.45K |
| Jimmy-Carvalho-Opcoes | No | 59.97K |
| Alex0027 | No | 50K |
| kylox | No | 47.84K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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