Analytics
Resolved Yes on 16 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.3%. Yes opened at 50% on 18 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 117 daily closes on record from 18 Apr 2026 to 16 Aug 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 99.8% on 13 Aug 2026 and the lowest 50% on 18 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 6 points up, to 87.5% on 25 Apr 2026. $199.73K traded over the market's life.
142 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 17, 4:50 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 117 points, 18 Apr 2026 – 16 Aug 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Apr 2026 | 50.0% |
| 16 Aug 2026 | 99.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| hermanosisicomono | No | 10.79K |
| Renan14comcerteza | No | 9.42K |
| pirulirubeibe | No | 7.01K |
The 2026 Brazil presidential election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. Political parties must file candidate registration applications with the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) for the 2026 Brazil presidential election by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Workers’ Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) files a candidate registration application nominating Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for President of Brazil by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A filing by a coalition (coligação) or party federation (federação partidária) that includes the PT and names Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as its presidential candidate will also qualify. This market will resolve based on the filing date (Data de Autuação) of an applicable Application for Registration of Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura, RRC). An Application for Registration of Individual Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura Individual, RRCI) will not qualify for resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be official filings from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-the-workers-party-nominate-lula-for-president-of-brazil-by-august-15
Start here: the 25 October runoff, the polls, the Polymarket odds and the results, in one guide.
Why a candidate's poll share and market price measure different things, and how to read them side by side.
When the count begins on 25 October, and where the electoral court publishes the official results.
| leonardohrmoura | No | 3.94K |
| Voluminous-Recreation | No | 1.12K |
| kallbe | No | 718.59 |
| Hilarious-Pork | No | 536.47 |
| Virtuous-Theory | No | 473.51 |
| Rapid Quasar 51BA | No | 446.16 |
| KO1982 | No | 439.23 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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