Analytics
Yes is at 3.5%, down 27 points from 30.5% when the market opened on 1 May 2026.
Across the 179 daily closes on record from 1 May 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 31.5% on 2 May 2026 and the lowest 0.5% on 25 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4.2%; a month before, 2.9%. Its largest one-day move was 26 points down, to 5.5% on 3 May 2026.
No IPO by December 31, 2027 ranks fourth of the 7 outcomes in “Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)”. 1.8T+ leads at 75%; 1.5–1.8T is at 18.2%.
$144.7 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $58.83K since listing. The order book holds $10.42K, with a 3.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $1.55K bought Yes and $6.1K bought No.
The largest Yes position is TruongMyLan with 5K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 22K. Ten wallets hold 85.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 9:18 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 179 points, 1 May 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 May 2026 | 30.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 3.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 21.99K |
| TruongMyLan | Yes | 5K |
| Telluxion | Yes | 3K |
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/anthropic-ipo-closing-market-cap-979
| Contentious-Dinnerdate |
| Yes |
| 2.48K |
| balthazar | Yes | 1.98K |
| Trifling-Fruit | Yes | 1.77K |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 1.39K |
| FrankG4728 | Yes | 873.45 |
| hetacz | No | 800 |
| randomgambla | Yes | 699.98 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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