Analytics
Yes is at 58%, down 24 points from 82% when the market opened on 3 Feb 2026.
Across the 235 daily closes on record from 3 Feb 2026 to 25 Oct 2026 (30 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 93.5% on 4 Aug 2026 and the lowest 35% on 31 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 64%; a month before, 40.5%. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 70.5% on 14 Aug 2026.
SpaceX is the favourite of the 12 outcomes in “Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?”, ahead of Anthropic at 40%.
$6.43K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $1.05M since listing. The order book holds $14.24K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $43.84K bought Yes and $2.81K bought No; the largest was a $25.91K buy of Yes at 52.0¢.
The largest Yes position is TheReturnOfDarthMaul with 106K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 165.7K. Ten wallets hold 77.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 2 Jan 2027, 67 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 27, 8:19 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 235 points, 3 Feb 2026 – 25 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Feb 2026 | 82.0% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | 64.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 165.67K |
| TheReturnOfDarthMaul | Yes | 106K |
| Pleased-Pardon | No | 101.12K |
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used. A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/largest-ipo-by-market-cap-in-2026-287
| UnreasonableAwareness | No | 65.04K |
| no1yet | Yes | 50K |
| Bertapotamous | Yes | 49.83K |
| 0x903221b1 | No | 49.36K |
| occasionalAwareness | No | 40.86K |
| BMM-1 | Yes | 31.31K |
| forinnerpsandr1x11222 | Yes | 26.78K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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