Analytics
Yes is at 46.4%, up 39 points from 7.5% when the market opened on 3 Feb 2026.
Across the 264 daily closes on record from 3 Feb 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 61% on 10 Sep 2026 and the lowest 2.4% on 13 Apr 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 27.3%; a month before, 44%. Its largest one-day move was 16 points up, to 26% on 14 Aug 2026.
Anthropic ranks second of the 12 outcomes in “Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?”. SpaceX leads at 50%; OpenAI is at 0.3%.
$6.15K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $1.4M since listing. The order book holds $27.55K, with a 7.3% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $23.64K bought Yes and $7.42K bought No; the largest was a $8.9K buy of Yes at 48.0¢.
The largest Yes position is occasionalAwareness with 94K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 168.7K. Ten wallets hold 79.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 2 Jan 2027, 66 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 8:38 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 264 points, 3 Feb 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Feb 2026 | 7.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 46.4% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 168.73K |
| TheReturnOfDarthMaul | No | 133.81K |
| occasionalAwareness | Yes | 94.03K |
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used. A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/largest-ipo-by-market-cap-in-2026-287
| Pleased-Pardon | Yes | 93.12K |
| BMM-1 | No | 43.32K |
| Nooserac | Yes | 20K |
| Substantial-Service | Yes | 18.55K |
| ThanksGivingTurkey1001 | Yes | 12.66K |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 10.62K |
| Downright-Nectarine | Yes | 10K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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