Analytics
Yes is at 95.5%, up 48 points from 48% when the market opened on 24 Sep 2025.
Across the 369 daily closes on record from 24 Sep 2025 to 27 Oct 2026 (31 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 97% on 13 Sep 2026 and the lowest 20.5% on 9 Jun 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 96.5%; a month before, 96.5%. Its largest one-day move was 47 points down, to 27.5% on 21 May 2026.
No IPO by December 31, 2026 is the favourite of the 7 outcomes in “OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap”, ahead of 1.5T+ at 1.2%.
$2.69K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $836.42K since listing. The order book holds $125.8K, with a 0.3% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is schizohedgehog with 36.3K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 42.3K. Ten wallets hold 72% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 66 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 27, 9:17 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 369 points, 24 Sep 2025 – 27 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Sep 2025 | 48.0% |
| 27 Oct 2026 | 95.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 42.26K |
| schizohedgehog | Yes | 36.28K |
| 101456 | No | 22.51K |
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap
| Turbulent-Decline-Router |
| No |
| 22.25K |
| Folletin | Yes | 12.75K |
| ImJustKenVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | Yes | 7.25K |
| StupidMonkeyyy | Yes | 6.47K |
| Lunar Beacon A495 | Yes | 4.47K |
| mombil | Yes | 3.59K |
| balthazar | Yes | 3.57K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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