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Profile detail last fetched just now. Trade times and chart dates show when activity occurred.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | No | 3.07K | $0.661 | $2.5K | +$472.63 |
 |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 420.61 | $0.353 | $148.31 | 11d ago |
 |
| Yes |
| 4.87K |
| $0.330 |
| $2.09K |
| +$487.06 |
 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September? | No | 2.45K | $0.817 | $1.76K | -$237.45 |
 Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? | No | 1.73K | $0.179 | $1.52K | +$1.21K |
 Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 1.46K | $0.926 | $1.36K | +$3.66 |
 Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026? | No | 1.34K | $0.355 | $1.24K | +$763.31 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 1.82K | $0.750 | $1.08K | -$281.63 |
 Will Roseana Sarney win the second-most votes in the 2026 Maranhão Senate election? | No | 1.23K | $0.810 | $1.06K | +$55.56 |
 Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | No | 1.43K | $0.565 | $1.02K | +$207.14 |
 Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? | No | 1K | $0.032 | $917.5 | +$885.5 |
 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | No | 678.73 | $0.442 | $642.42 | +$342.42 |
 Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes? | No | 595.79 | $0.531 | $591.92 | +$275.2 |
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 1.17K | $0.488 | $392.71 | -$179.55 |
 Will Trump and Putin not meet? | Yes | 975.99 | $0.320 | $346.48 | +$34.16 |
 Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | Yes | 358.49 | $0.696 | $321.03 | +$71.52 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 3.75K | $0.200 | $318.78 | -$431.28 |
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 615.13 | $0.430 | $273.73 | +$9.23 |
 Will CDU win less than 8% of all valid second votes? | No | 468.68 | $0.630 | $264.8 | -$30.46 |
 Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? | No | 359.92 | $0.700 | $264.54 | +$12.6 |
 Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? | No | 350.79 | $0.600 | $257.83 | +$47.36 |
 Will Juraj Droba win the 2026 Bratislava Region gubernatorial election? | No | 1.32K | $0.111 | $229.82 | +$83.21 |
 Will Lorenia Valles Sampedro win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election? | No | 368.49 | $0.500 | $211.88 | +$27.64 |
 Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 299.27 | $0.740 | $202.01 | -$19.45 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? | No | 674.64 | $0.336 | $172.03 | -$54.69 |
 Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490? | No | 327.65 | $0.340 | $170.38 | +$58.98 |
| sell |
| 163.93 |
| $0.790 |
| $129.5 |
| 28d ago |
 Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?No | sell | 243.9 | $0.502 | $122.46 | Aug 5, 2026 |
 Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Yes | sell | 778.13 | $0.660 | $513.57 | Jul 31, 2026 |
 Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 2?Yes | sell | 0.38 | $0.080 | $0.03 | Jul 1, 2026 |
 France vs. Sweden: Team to AdvanceSweden | sell | 5 | $0.140 | $0.7 | Jun 30, 2026 |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No | sell | 5 | $0.971 | $4.85 | Jun 27, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No | buy | 5 | $0.972 | $4.86 | Jun 27, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No | sell | 5 | $0.966 | $4.83 | Jun 27, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No | buy | 5 | $0.967 | $4.84 | Jun 27, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No | sell | 5 | $0.966 | $4.83 | Jun 27, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No | buy | 5 | $0.967 | $4.84 | Jun 27, 2026 |
 Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 26?Yes | sell | 100 | $0.999 | $99.9 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes | sell | 10 | $0.101 | $1.01 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.102 | $1.02 | Jun 26, 2026 |
 US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?No | sell | 5 | $0.220 | $1.1 | Jun 14, 2026 |