Analytics
Vultax does not execute orders. These controls open the official Polymarket market or route back into the Vultax predictions terminal.
“Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?” is a finance prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
Trading is open until Jan 1, 2028 UTC. As of Oct 2, 5:12 PM UTC, Yes trades at 21.9¢, a 21.9% implied chance, $165.49 traded in the last 24 hours, $10.51K resting in the order book, a 0.1% bid-ask spread.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 215 daily price points from Feb 7, 2026 UTC to Oct 2, 2026 UTC (Yes between 3.5% and 59.0%); 78 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 88.6% of the loaded shares; 500 recent public fills from 114 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 215 points · 7 Feb 2026 – 2 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Feb 2026 | 52.5% |
| 2 Oct 2026 | 21.9% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 20.54K |
| chivoexpiatorio | Yes | 12.28K |
| Folletin | Yes |
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-554
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 4.46K |
| Violet Vector B233 | No | 4.08K |
| InterestingUser | Yes | 2.87K |
| DancewithRisk | No | 2.84K |
| bqb | Yes | 1.93K |
| Haradwaith | No | 1.44K |
| Jesetrading | Yes | 1.4K |
| Speedy-Automation | Yes | 1.13K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
