Analytics
Yes is at 38%, down 8 points from 46% when the market opened on 30 Aug 2026.
Across the 56 daily closes on record from 30 Aug 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (7 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 89.5% on 3 Oct 2026 and the lowest 33.5% on 30 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 62%; a month before, 85%. Its largest one-day move was 34 points down, to 47.5% on 5 Oct 2026.
$5.77K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $70.15, with a 36.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 87 trades, $1.08K bought Yes and $751.08 bought No.
The largest Yes position is Rentabar with 484 shares; the largest No position is OhneScharf with 775. Ten wallets hold 87.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 21 Dec 2026, 52 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 6:50 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 56 points, 30 Aug 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Aug 2026 | 46.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 38.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| OhneScharf | No | 775.09 |
| Rentabar | Yes | 484.22 |
| tradetosurvive1 | No | 325 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Carlos Sainz is classified ahead of Fernando Alonso in the final official 2026 FIA Formula One World Drivers' Championship standings. This market will resolve to "No" if Fernando Alonso is classified ahead of Carlos Sainz. The final standings will be those published by the FIA at the conclusion of the 2026 season, including any tiebreakers applied under FIA rules and any penalties or adjustments reflected in that final classification. Both drivers will be ranked per that classification regardless of how many races either driver starts or completes. If the 2026 Formula One season is cancelled, postponed after December 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no final classification is published within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the final classification does not rank both drivers, this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the FIA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/f1-will-carlos-sainz-finish-ahead-of-fernando-alonso-in-the-2026-drivers-championship
| Filobestia |
| Yes |
| 257 |
| gravityfusion | Yes | 193 |
| bubububblebutt | Yes | 175.6 |
| GuyFromTinder | No | 124.99 |
| Frightening-Lever | No | 78.06 |
| Snoorrason | No | 61.33 |
| Hosei | Yes | 60.85 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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