Analytics
Yes is at 2.9%, down 5.1 points from 8% when the market opened on 6 Jan 2026.
Across the 273 daily closes on record from 6 Jan 2026 to 27 Oct 2026 (22 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 10.5% on 7 Jan 2026 and the lowest 1.2% on 9 Jun 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 2.8%; a month before, 2.1%.
$212.22 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $155.4K since listing. The order book holds $45K, with a 1.8% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $291.83 bought Yes and $59.01K bought No; the largest was a $1.67K buy of No at 97.0¢.
The largest Yes position is alivedeer with 2K shares; the largest No position is DFK with 3.5K. Ten wallets hold 55.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 66 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 27, 7:59 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 273 points, 6 Jan 2026 – 27 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Jan 2026 | 8.0% |
| 27 Oct 2026 | 2.9% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| DFK | No | 3.52K |
| alivedeer | Yes | 2K |
| 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | No | 969.98 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-colombia-in-2026
| BafanaBafana | No | 805.02 |
| Ra777 | Yes | 576.65 |
| Playful-Hydrant | Yes | 555.56 |
| paula0xa | Yes | 534.72 |
| Melqui | No | 398.05 |
| Agyapro | Yes | 381.64 |
| Quiet Maven DECF | Yes | 375.78 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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