Analytics
Yes is at 11%, down 17 points from 27.5% when the market opened on 12 Mar 2026.
Across the 202 daily closes on record from 12 Mar 2026 to 27 Oct 2026 (28 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 45.5% on 18 Mar 2026 and the lowest 9% on 5 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 9.5%; a month before, 10.5%. Its largest one-day move was 14 points up, to 38.5% on 24 May 2026.
$193.65 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $1.83M since listing. The order book holds $52.5K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $917.35 bought Yes and $17.97K bought No; the largest was a $5.54K sell of No at 91.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Lubaz with 13K shares; the largest No position is stupid22 with 15.8K. Ten wallets hold 36.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 66 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 27, 6:17 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 202 points, 12 Mar 2026 – 27 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Mar 2026 | 27.5% |
| 27 Oct 2026 | 13.5% |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba. Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/cuban-regime-falls-in-2026
| Threadbare-Signal |
| Yes |
| 8.51K |
| SirHarryOakes | No | 7.35K |
| rtg003.coin | Yes | 6.75K |
| MEPP | No | 6K |
| randomlypunting | Yes | 5.94K |
| e88888 | No | 5.51K |
| yeeTradez | Yes | 5K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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