Analytics
Yes is at 4.3%, down 46 points from 50% when the market opened on 27 May 2026.
Across the 153 daily closes on record from 27 May 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50% on 27 May 2026 and the lowest 3.2% on 18 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 5.3%; a month before, 4.1%. Its largest one-day move was 20 points down, to 21% on 1 Jun 2026.
$33.85K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $15.14K, with a 2.4% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 403 trades, $947.42 bought Yes and $11.6K bought No; the largest was a $2.03K buy of No at 91.7¢.
The largest Yes position is Trusty-Pudding with 1.3K shares; the largest No position is Car with 1.6K. Ten wallets hold 62.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 5:58 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 153 points, 27 May 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 May 2026 | 50.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 4.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| CarVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | No | 1.63K |
| Trusty-Pudding | Yes | 1.33K |
| aleksandrshtefanov |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration. Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify. Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ex-cuba-leader-raul-castro-in-us-custody-by
| No |
| 616 |
| Perypery | Yes | 409.2 |
| Responsible-Parchment | Yes | 400 |
| Trading4Fridge | Yes | 320.16 |
| Favorable-Pepper-Brushing | No | 287.49 |
| jinsqu | Yes | 260 |
| thecaricature | Yes | 221.99 |
| highdri | Yes | 214.29 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
