Analytics
Yes is at 11.5%, down 39 points from 50% when the market opened on 12 Jun 2026.
Across the 128 daily closes on record from 12 Jun 2026 to 27 Oct 2026 (11 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 72% on 14 Jun 2026 and the lowest 10.5% on 3 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 11.5%; a month before, 25.5%. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 46.5% on 23 Jun 2026.
$129.85 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $35.06K since listing. The order book holds $1.92K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 396 trades, $2.1K bought Yes and $8.18K bought No; the largest was a $1.82K buy of No at 62.7¢.
The largest Yes position is paddaa with 1.6K shares; the largest No position is LJa7io23MCv954j with 3.1K. Ten wallets hold 82.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 66 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 27, 8:47 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 128 points, 12 Jun 2026 – 27 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Jun 2026 | 50.0% |
| 27 Oct 2026 | 11.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| LJa7io23MCv954j | No | 3.08K |
| paddaa | Yes | 1.56K |
| wallet-account-test | No | 419 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over trade, tariffs, sanctions, or the US embargo on Cuba, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Cuba by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement may include, but is not limited to, US sanctions relief for Cuba or other easing of U.S. restrictions on Cuban imports, exports, shipping, payments, energy trade, or other trade-related activity. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Cuba as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution. Only deals which are officially announced by both parties or confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and Cuba, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-x-cuba-economic-deal-by
| Haradwaith |
| Yes |
| 402.14 |
| Golden-Packaging | Yes | 380.87 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 349.25 |
| Crimson Scout DF5C | No | 308.99 |
| PROPHET.NOTES | Yes | 276.51 |
| Drunken-Mentat | No | 197.37 |
| adrenvl22 | Yes | 196.37 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
