Analytics
Yes is at 3.3%, down 46 points from 49.5% when the market opened on 25 Feb 2026.
Across the 221 daily closes on record from 25 Feb 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (26 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 49.5% on 25 Feb 2026 and the lowest 2.9% on 16 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4.3%; a month before, 3.8%. Its largest one-day move was 32 points down, to 18% on 26 Feb 2026.
$14 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $41.16K since listing. The order book holds $13.5K, with a 0.9% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $604.23 bought Yes and $5.24K bought No; the largest was a $1.16K sell of No at 95.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Violet Harbor 1B48 with 4.3K shares; the largest No position is archaic with 3.2K. Ten wallets hold 63.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 10:22 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 221 points, 25 Feb 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Feb 2026 | 49.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 3.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Violet Harbor 1B48 | Yes | 4.32K |
| archaic | No | 3.2K |
| SmartBoyBilly | No | 1.2K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Claudia Sheinbaum ceases to be President of Mexico for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Claudia Sheinbaum's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Claudia Sheinbaum and the government of Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/claudia-sheinbaum-out-as-president-of-mexico-by-june-30
| Crimson Scout DF5C |
| No |
| 1.18K |
| Musk5 | No | 990.12 |
| luis502503 | Yes | 967.29 |
| noviceprotrader | Yes | 777.63 |
| Zaratustra | No | 606.14 |
| multitraderX | Yes | 584.19 |
| Cobalt Horizon D769 | Yes | 555.69 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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