Analytics
Yes is at 3.3%, down 4.8 points from 8% when the market opened on 6 Jan 2026.
The high was 10.5% on 7 Jan 2026 and the low 1.2% on 9 Jun 2026. A week ago Yes was at 2.1%; a month ago, 2.5%.
$350.04 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $150.56K since listing. The order book holds $25.75K, with a 0.5% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $277.94 bought Yes and $56.29K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Ra777 with 577 shares; the largest No position is trumpishonest with 1.3K. Ten wallets hold 46.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 88 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 5, 6:22 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 257 points · 6 Jan 2026 – 5 Oct 2026 · axis zoomed to 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Jan 2026 | 8.0% |
| 5 Oct 2026 | 3.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| trumpishonest | No | 1.28K |
| 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | No | 969.98 |
| BafanaBafana | No | 805.02 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-colombia-in-2026
| Melqui | No | 581.41 |
| Ra777 | Yes | 576.65 |
| Playful-Hydrant | Yes | 555.56 |
| paula0xa | Yes | 534.72 |
| Threadbare-Signal | Yes | 468.3 |
| Agyapro | Yes | 381.64 |
| Quiet Maven DECF | Yes | 375.78 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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