Analytics
Yes is at 3.7%, down 9.8 points from 13.5% when the market opened on 5 Jan 2026.
Across the 259 daily closes on record from 5 Jan 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (34 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 39% on 11 Jan 2026 and the lowest 3.4% on 16 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 3.6%; a month before, 9.5%. Its largest one-day move was 21 points up, to 37% on 10 Jan 2026.
$497.6 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $770.26K since listing. The order book holds $14.85K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is LongShortNeutral with 8.9K shares; the largest No position is Jan777 with 28.6K. Ten wallets hold 48.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 69 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 11:06 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 259 points, 5 Jan 2026 – 24 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Jan 2026 | 13.5% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 3.7% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-strike-on-mexico-by
| Canaldi |
| No |
| 9.19K |
| LongShortNeutral | Yes | 8.91K |
| yoshi92 | Yes | 8.48K |
| Worse-Scenario | Yes | 6.08K |
| Occasional-Tilt | Yes | 5.76K |
| MEPP | No | 5.68K |
| Awesome-Combination | Yes | 5.05K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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