Analytics
Yes is at 5.5%, down 6 points from 11.5% when the market opened on 5 Jan 2026.
Across the 271 daily closes on record from 5 Jan 2026 to 27 Oct 2026 (26 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 28.5% on 19 Mar 2026 and the lowest 4.5% on 3 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 6.5%; a month before, 5.5%. Its largest one-day move was 7 points down, to 16.5% on 8 May 2026.
$19.56K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $3.68M since listing. The order book holds $92.45K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $8.35K bought Yes and $91.12K bought No; the largest was a $16.37K sell of No at 95.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Ferwhere with 92K shares; the largest No position is thoodr with 63.9K. Ten wallets hold 45.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 66 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 27, 8:53 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 271 points, 5 Jan 2026 – 27 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Jan 2026 | 11.5% |
| 27 Oct 2026 | 5.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Ferwhere | Yes | 92.04K |
| thoodr | No | 63.89K |
| Threadbare-Signal | Yes | 57.75K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-cuba-in-2026
| aenews2 |
| Yes |
| 28.95K |
| Erasmus. | No | 27.16K |
| trumpishonest | No | 26K |
| ddurrrrrr | No | 22.39K |
| eeelliot | Yes | 21K |
| Overcooked-Ziggurat | Yes | 18.35K |
| ANGGGuess | No | 17.46K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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