Analytics
Yes is at 39.5%, up 15 points from 24.5% when the market opened on 6 Oct 2026.
Across the 21 daily closes on record from 6 Oct 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 58% on 9 Oct 2026 and the lowest 24.5% on 6 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 38.5%. Its largest one-day move was 17 points up, to 58% on 9 Oct 2026.
It is one of 6 markets under “Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?”.
$9.35K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $45.77K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 113 trades, $1.74K bought Yes and $1.91K bought No; the largest was a $1.14K buy of No at 51.5¢.
The largest Yes position is King-Nothing with 1.1K shares; the largest No position is vinii with 1.2K. Ten wallets hold 91.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 2:10 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 21 points, 6 Oct 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Oct 2026 | 24.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 39.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| vinii | No | 1.17K |
| King-Nothing | Yes | 1.06K |
| dsds1 | No | 891.14 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/friedrich-merz-out-as-chancellor-of-germany-before-2027
| mombil |
| No |
| 890.16 |
| Aromatic-Carter | Yes | 718 |
| TheOne777 | Yes | 650.31 |
| asdasdasdasdasdasdasd | Yes | 411 |
| Soulful-Remains-Chorus | No | 285 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 278.45 |
| neutralwave23 | Yes | 215.4 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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