Analytics
Yes is at 4.7%, down 1.8 points from 6.5% when the market opened on 2 Jul 2026.
Across the 116 daily closes on record from 2 Jul 2026 to 27 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 20.2% on 7 Oct 2026 and the lowest 0.6% on 22 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4.6%; a month before, 0.7%. Its largest one-day move was 8.3 points up, to 17% on 5 Oct 2026.
Sánchez - Spanish PM ranks fourth of the 22 outcomes in “Next leader out of power before 2027?”. None before 2027 leads at 47.5%; Netanyahu - Israel PM is at 24%.
$994.79 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $67.34K since listing. The order book holds $29.05K, with a 0.2% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is buoys with 8.4K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 36.6K. Ten wallets hold 86.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 66 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 27, 8:21 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 116 points, 2 Jul 2026 – 27 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Jul 2026 | 6.5% |
| 27 Oct 2026 | 4.1% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 36.63K |
| buoys | Yes | 8.36K |
| Joaks | Yes | 6.3K |
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-starmer-or-petro-20260630194619406
10 more outcomes, none above 0.6%.
| Violet Ledger EB39 |
| Yes |
| 4.4K |
| fiter | Yes | 3.2K |
| QMG-CORE | Yes | 3K |
| pkz | Yes | 2.21K |
| paddaa | Yes | 1.22K |
| Quiet Meteor 2709 | No | 1.18K |
| donthackme | Yes | 1.17K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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