Analytics
Yes is at 11.5%, down 11 points from 22% when the market opened on 4 Dec 2025.
Across the 299 daily closes on record from 4 Dec 2025 to 24 Oct 2026 (26 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 25% on 6 Dec 2025 and the lowest 9.5% on 4 Feb 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 11.5%; a month before, 13.5%. Its largest one-day move was 8.5 points up, to 22.5% on 28 Feb 2026.
$356.63 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $93.28K since listing. The order book holds $13.14K, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $4.65K bought Yes and $16.26K bought No; the largest was a $3.43K buy of No at 88.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Fat-Ecumenist with 7.9K shares; the largest No position is justme003 with 7.9K. Ten wallets hold 71.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Dec 2026, 68 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 11:10 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 299 points, 4 Dec 2025 – 24 Oct 2026, chart shows 5%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Dec 2025 | 22.0% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 11.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| justme003 | No | 7.94K |
| Fat-Ecumenist | Yes | 7.86K |
| Troubled-Might | Yes | 6.19K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government. A coalition break may be evidenced by: – a formal withdrawal from the coalition, – the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party, – or the appointment of a new federal government. If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party. If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.” The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-cducsuspd-german-federal-coalition-break-before-2027
| Violet Beacon 6402 |
| No |
| 5.03K |
| goingsocial | No | 4.93K |
| dsds1 | No | 2.89K |
| GarthBroadmore | Yes | 2.81K |
| Optimus- | Yes | 2.2K |
| Gl4d | Yes | 1.71K |
| LevantLeverage | No | 1.24K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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