Analytics
Yes is at 50%, about where the market opened on 17 Sep 2026.
Across the 37 daily closes on record from 17 Sep 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 59.5% on 2 Oct 2026 and the lowest 43.5% on 19 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 51%; a month before, 48.5%. Its largest one-day move was 13 points up, to 58.5% on 30 Sep 2026.
It is one of 7 markets under “Fed rate cut by...?”.
$127.33 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $8.61K, with a 60.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is Finnegan.jo2 with 100 shares; the largest No position is AJSV with 59.
Trading closes on 8 Aug 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 7:00 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 37 points, 17 Sep 2026 – 24 Oct 2026, chart shows 40%–65%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Sep 2026 | 50.5% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 50.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Finnegan.jo2 | Yes | 100 |
| AJSV | No | 59.37 |
| Ahpo | No | 34.44 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for July 2027, currently scheduled for July 27 to 28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no July meeting takes place by August 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/fed-rate-cut-by-629
| melonmanm |
| No |
| 6.27 |
| MGSIV | Yes | 1.25 |
| Coral Meteor 4A31 | No | 1.19 |
| Ivory Quasar 68F3 | Yes | 0.01 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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