Analytics
Yes is at 5.5%, down 15 points from 20.5% when the market opened on 17 Sep 2026.
The high was 20.5% on 17 Sep 2026 and the low 5.5% on 8 Oct 2026. A week ago Yes was at 6.5%. Its largest one-day move was 8 points down, to 12.5% on 18 Sep 2026.
It is one of 7 markets under “Fed rate cut by...?”.
$361.15 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $2.94K since listing. The order book holds $18.39K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 25 trades, $105.82 bought Yes and $1.3K bought No.
The largest Yes position is RektCitys with 2.3K shares; the largest No position is Ahpo with 1.1K.
Trading closes on 8 Feb 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 9, 6:22 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 24 points · 17 Sep 2026 – 9 Oct 2026 · axis zoomed to 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Sep 2026 | 20.5% |
| 9 Oct 2026 | 5.5% |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2027, currently scheduled for January 26 to 27. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/fed-rate-cut-by-629
| QMG-CORE |
| No |
| 500 |
| badatthis | Yes | 451.93 |
| Major-Revolution | No | 349.99 |
| Elias.Thornwell | No | 38.04 |
| AJSV | Yes | 30.22 |
| Tsugaru | Yes | 25 |
| rar111 | Yes | 11.05 |
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