Analytics
Yes is at 0.1%, down 82 points from 82.5% when the market opened on 27 Feb 2026.
Across the 214 daily closes on record from 27 Feb 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (30 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 86% on 2 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 27 Oct 2026. The current quote, 0.1%, is below every close in that window; the latest close was 0.3% on 28 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 0.4%; a month before, 0.9%. Its largest one-day move was 27 points down, to 20.3% on 30 Apr 2026.
It is one of 7 markets under “Fed rate cut by...?”.
$19.26K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $256.09K since listing. The order book holds $59.8K, with a 0.05% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $208.38 bought Yes and $29.95K bought No; the largest was a $17.41K buy of No at 99.8¢.
The largest Yes position is truthteller with 16.9K shares; the largest No position is TheyAreTakingTheHobitsToIsengard with 17.7K. Ten wallets hold 71.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 29 Jan 2027, 93 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 7:10 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 214 points, 27 Feb 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Feb 2026 | 82.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 0.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| TheyAreTakingTheHobitsToIsengard | No | 17.73K |
| noreasapa | No | 17.45K |
| truthteller | Yes | 16.89K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for October 2026, currently scheduled for October 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no October meeting takes place by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/fed-rate-cut-by-629
| balthazar | Yes | 13.37K |
| Ahpo | No | 7.06K |
| fafafafafafafafsadasdq | Yes | 6.63K |
| TheReturnOfDarthMaul | No | 5.88K |
| thoodr | No | 4.7K |
| HolyMoses7VerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | Yes | 3.68K |
| cakoy | Yes | 2.09K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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