Analytics
Yes is at 3.1%, down 80 points from 83.5% when the market opened on 27 Feb 2026.
Across the 213 daily closes on record from 27 Feb 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (27 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 89.5% on 4 Mar 2026 and the lowest 1.9% on 23 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 2.5%; a month before, 2.5%. Its largest one-day move was 15 points down, to 42.5% on 30 Apr 2026.
It is one of 7 markets under “Fed rate cut by...?”.
$424.91 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $424.72K since listing. The order book holds $58.05K, with a 0.3% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is maritime6307 with 13.4K shares; the largest No position is TheReturnOfDarthMaul with 44.5K. Ten wallets hold 60.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 29 Jan 2027, 97 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 3:46 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 213 points, 27 Feb 2026 – 24 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Feb 2026 | 83.5% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 3.4% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| TheReturnOfDarthMaul | No | 44.5K |
| maritime6307 | Yes | 13.38K |
| strategy1.2 | No | 11.73K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for December 2026, currently scheduled for December 8-9. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no December meeting takes place by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/fed-rate-cut-by-629
| NoPeeking | Yes | 6.21K |
| Ahpo | No | 5.74K |
| gambler925 | Yes | 5.18K |
| balthazar | Yes | 3.91K |
| uraw | Yes | 3.68K |
| fed26 | No | 3.38K |
| Bravo414 | Yes | 3.01K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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