Analytics
Profile detail last fetched just now. Trade times and chart dates show when activity occurred.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | No | 599.47 | $0.183 | $494.56 | +$384.56 |
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This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Yes | buy | 438.94 | $0.289 | $127.06 | 7d ago |
 |
| Yes |
| 987.04 |
| $0.506 |
| $449.11 |
| -$50.73 |
 JD Vance out as VP by December 31? | Yes | 5.71K | $0.096 | $314.29 | -$235.71 |
 UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? | No | 289.6 | $0.691 | $250.5 | +$50.5 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | Yes | 1.14K | $0.294 | $233.46 | -$101.4 |
 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | 259.44 | $0.728 | $225.71 | +$36.71 |
 Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026? | Yes | 263.16 | $0.380 | $222.37 | +$122.37 |
 Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 362.08 | $0.566 | $219.06 | +$14.06 |
 Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? | Yes | 3.01K | $0.251 | $195.7 | -$559.33 |
 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 194.87 | $0.770 | $166.62 | +$16.62 |
 US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027? | Yes | 298.51 | $0.670 | $164.18 | -$35.82 |
 Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | Yes | 546.08 | $0.403 | $161.09 | -$58.91 |
 NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 566.01 | $0.217 | $121.69 | -$1.31 |
 Iran full airspace closure by December 31? | Yes | 327.96 | $0.244 | $101.67 | +$21.67 |
 Kash Patel out by December 31? | Yes | 337.34 | $0.464 | $75.9 | -$80.74 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 196.08 | $0.510 | $67.65 | -$32.35 |
 Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1.14K | $0.114 | $62.86 | -$67.14 |
 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | Yes | 721.98 | $0.159 | $42.96 | -$72.04 |
 Fed rate hike in 2026? | Yes | 55.56 | $0.540 | $39.17 | +$9.17 |
 US x Cuba military clash in 2026? | Yes | 266.48 | $0.375 | $35.97 | -$64.03 |
 Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | Yes | 162.89 | $0.307 | $34.21 | -$15.79 |
 Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? | Yes | 282.26 | $0.248 | $29.64 | -$40.36 |
 Russia coup attempt in 2026? | Yes | 528.97 | $0.104 | $29.09 | -$25.73 |
 Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 103.45 | $0.290 | $28.45 | -$1.55 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 166.67 | $0.300 | $24.17 | -$25.83 |
| sell |
| 147.05 |
| $0.890 |
| $130.87 |
| 7d ago |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Yes | buy | 330.38 | $0.290 | $95.81 | 7d ago |
 Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?No | sell | 109.89 | $0.901 | $99.04 | 7d ago |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Yes | buy | 286.17 | $0.290 | $82.99 | 7d ago |
 US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel by December 31?Yes | buy | 42.86 | $0.700 | $30 | 9d ago |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | sell | 375 | $0.005 | $1.88 | 9d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 697.67 | $0.430 | $300 | 9d ago |
 Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 67.91 | $0.920 | $62.48 | 9d ago |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?No | sell | 42.25 | $0.940 | $39.71 | 9d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?No | sell | 329.86 | $0.969 | $319.63 | 9d ago |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 122.22 | $0.270 | $33 | 14d ago |
 Trump out as President before 2027?Yes | sell | 105.26 | $0.060 | $6.32 | 14d ago |
| Iran full airspace closure by December 31?Yes | buy | 166.67 | $0.180 | $30 | 14d ago |
| Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Yes | buy | 74.07 | $0.270 | $20 | 14d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 29.41 | $0.680 | $20 | 14d ago |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 196.08 | $0.510 | $100 | 17d ago |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?Yes | buy | 298.51 | $0.670 | $200 | 17d ago |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 149.67 | $0.267 | $40 | 17d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 14.49 | $0.690 | $10 | 17d ago |
| Kash Patel out by December 31?Yes | buy | 80 | $0.250 | $20 | 17d ago |
 Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Yes | buy | 76.92 | $0.130 | $10 | 17d ago |
 Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?Yes | buy | 47.3 | $0.211 | $10 | 17d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?No | sell | 491.37 | $0.996 | $489.4 | 18d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 161.53 | $0.680 | $109.84 | 19d ago |
| Iran full airspace closure by December 31?Yes | buy | 161.29 | $0.310 | $50 | 19d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 70.42 | $0.710 | $50 | 22d ago |
 US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Yes | sell | 85.1 | $0.017 | $1.45 | 22d ago |
| Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 625 | $0.160 | $100 | 29d ago |
 Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 310.42 | $0.910 | $282.48 | 29d ago |
 US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?No | sell | 35.18 | $0.920 | $32.37 | 29d ago |
| Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 59.75 | $0.160 | $9.56 | 29d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?No | buy | 117.65 | $0.850 | $100 | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 142.86 | $0.140 | $20 | Jul 24, 2026 |
 Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?No | sell | 140.84 | $0.920 | $129.57 | Jul 24, 2026 |
 Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 56.67 | $0.300 | $17 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Yes | buy | 26.32 | $0.190 | $5 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes | buy | 166.67 | $0.300 | $50 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?No | buy | 289.6 | $0.691 | $200 | Jul 22, 2026 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 147.06 | $0.680 | $100 | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Kash Patel out by December 31?Yes | buy | 55.56 | $0.360 | $20 | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 333.33 | $0.090 | $30 | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31?Yes | buy | 196.86 | $0.508 | $100 | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?No | buy | 64.94 | $0.770 | $50 | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?No | buy | 114.94 | $0.870 | $100 | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31?Yes | buy | 43.48 | $0.460 | $20 | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Yes | buy | 59.26 | $0.337 | $20 | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?No | buy | 114.94 | $0.870 | $100 | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?Yes | buy | 263.16 | $0.380 | $100 | Jul 12, 2026 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 42.25 | $0.710 | $30 | Jul 12, 2026 |