
Yes is at 17.5%, down 8 points from 25.5% when the market opened on 3 Sep 2026.
The high was 25.5% on 3 Sep 2026 and the low 6.5% on 4 Sep 2026. A week ago Yes was at 23.5%; a month ago, 23.5%. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 6.5% on 4 Sep 2026.
Hike–Pause–Pause ranks second of the 5 outcomes in “Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)”. Hike–Pause–Hike leads at 70%; Hike–Hike–Hike is at 8.5%.
$8.9K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $92.34K since listing. The order book holds $45.61K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $6.25K bought Yes and $17.57K bought No; the largest was a $1.28K buy of Yes at 22.0¢.
The largest Yes position is balthazar with 13.6K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 32.9K. Ten wallets hold 79.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 9 Dec 2026, 55 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 16, 2:17 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 45 points, 3 Sep 2026 – 16 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Sep 2026 | 25.5% |
| 16 Oct 2026 | 17.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 32.88K |
| balthazar | Yes | 13.56K |
| art369864 | Yes | 5.8K |
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/fed-decisions-sepdec
| gambler925 |
| Yes |
| 4.5K |
| HolyMoses7VerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | No | 3.62K |
| cigarettes | No | 3.37K |
| pieped | Yes | 3.03K |
| ZD-ELO-M3 | Yes | 2.42K |
| podairpod | No | 2.08K |
| Vigilant-Webpage-Brush | Yes | 1.88K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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