Analytics
Yes is at 1.5%, down 11 points from 12.5% when the market opened on 3 Sep 2026.
Across the 48 daily closes on record from 3 Sep 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (9 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 27% on 19 Sep 2026 and the lowest 1.2% on 28 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 2.3%; a month before, 22.5%. Its largest one-day move was 15 points up, to 26.5% on 18 Sep 2026.
Hike–Hike–Pause ranks fifth of the 5 outcomes in “Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)”. Hike–Pause–Hike leads at 74%; Hike–Pause–Pause is at 20.5%.
$248.4 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $67.22K since listing. The order book holds $56.61K, with a 1.9% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $2.22K bought Yes and $12.13K bought No; the largest was a $1.02K buy of No at 74.8¢.
The largest Yes position is balthazar with 9.7K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 41.7K. Ten wallets hold 88.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 9 Dec 2026, 43 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 12:36 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 48 points, 3 Sep 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Sep 2026 | 12.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 1.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 41.71K |
| balthazar | Yes | 9.7K |
| cigarettes | Yes | 8.53K |
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/fed-decisions-sepdec
| c231dw1 |
| Yes |
| 5.39K |
| podairpod | Yes | 4.2K |
| ZD-ELO-M3 | Yes | 3K |
| simpleman | Yes | 2.67K |
| ethBELIVER | No | 2.62K |
| planktonXD | Yes | 1.03K |
| Coral Pulse 9519 | Yes | 784.21 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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