Analytics
Yes is at 72.5%, up 47 points from 25.5% when the market opened on 3 Sep 2026.
Across the 51 daily closes on record from 3 Sep 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 72.5% on 23 Oct 2026 and the lowest 7.5% on 11 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 69%; a month before, 22.5%. Its largest one-day move was 17 points up, to 24.5% on 12 Sep 2026.
Hike–Pause–Hike is the favourite of the 5 outcomes in “Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)”, ahead of Hike–Pause–Pause at 21%.
$10.11K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $116.04K since listing. The order book holds $49.66K, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $17.99K bought Yes and $8.05K bought No; the largest was a $3.23K buy of Yes at 63.4¢.
The largest Yes position is simpleman with 25.2K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 41.1K. Ten wallets hold 86.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 9 Dec 2026, 47 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 9:08 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 51 points, 3 Sep 2026 – 24 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Sep 2026 | 25.5% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 72.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 41.06K |
| simpleman | Yes | 25.22K |
| puravida | No | 7.15K |
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/fed-decisions-sepdec
| balthazar |
| Yes |
| 6.13K |
| Supernature88 | Yes | 5.82K |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yes | 4K |
| podairpod | Yes | 3.5K |
| HolyMoses7VerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | Yes | 3.17K |
| browne | Yes | 3.08K |
| betwick | No | 2.3K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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