Analytics
Yes is at 75%, down 4.5 points from 79.5% when the market opened on 17 Sep 2026.
Across the 36 daily closes on record from 17 Sep 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 91.5% on 25 Sep 2026 and the lowest 71.5% on 3 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 79.5%; a month before, 91%. Its largest one-day move was 7 points down, to 79.5% on 17 Oct 2026.
$44.72K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $1.05M since listing. The order book holds $243.54K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $36.78K bought Yes and $31.99K bought No; the largest was a $8.36K buy of No at 21.3¢.
The largest Yes position is TheReturnOfDarthMaul with 80K shares; the largest No position is foodenjoyer with 254.7K. Ten wallets hold 71.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 10 Dec 2026, 47 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 7:28 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 36 points, 17 Sep 2026 – 24 Oct 2026, chart shows 60%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Sep 2026 | 79.5% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 77.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| foodenjoyer | No | 254.66K |
| TheReturnOfDarthMaul | Yes | 80K |
| simpleman | Yes | 72.52K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/another-fed-rate-hike-in-2026
| Ferwhere |
| No |
| 70.04K |
| TheyAreTakingTheHobitsToIsengard | Yes | 70K |
| Roflan-ludoman | Yes | 33.48K |
| suntori | No | 29.62K |
| Corrupt-Lark | Yes | 27K |
| wafer10 | No | 22.15K |
| bambooo | No | 18.76K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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